Past the halfway mark of 2026, Singapore's property market is doing something it rarely does: moving in two directions at once. Private prices are still climbing, just more slowly. HDB resale has now fallen two quarters in a row, the first back-to-back decline in nearly seven years. Here is what that actually means for your next move.
The market is diverging, not turning. URA's private price index rose 0.5% in Q2 2026 after 0.9% in Q1, with landed (+2.6%) and the CCR (+2.0%) taking over leadership from the OCR. The HDB resale index fell 0.3% in Q2 after slipping 0.1% in Q1, the first consecutive quarterly declines since 2019. Cooling measures are steady: ABSD unchanged since April 2023, SSD runs four years at 16/12/8/4% for purchases from 4 July 2025, and the 15-month wait-out remains in force. With fixed mortgages near 1.4% and a thin new-launch pipeline, buyers with a four-year-plus horizon face a constructive but disciplined market.
The scoreboard past mid-2026
Start with the numbers, because everything else is opinion. URA's private residential price index rose 0.5% in Q2 2026, easing from 0.9% in Q1. That headline hides a rotation underneath: landed homes rebounded 2.6% and the Core Central Region gained 2.0%, while the city fringe (RCR) fell 1.4% and the suburbs (OCR) slipped 0.2%. The OCR-led run of early 2026 has handed the baton back to the scarce end of the market. Overall, private prices are up about 2.9% year on year.
The HDB market told a different story, and told it twice. The Resale Price Index slipped 0.1% in Q1, then fell 0.3% in Q2 2026, the first back-to-back quarterly decline in nearly seven years. Resale volume also thinned, running about 10% below the same period last year. This is supply-led digestion, not distress: more MOP flats are reaching the market and strong BTO pipelines are absorbing demand. Premium flats in mature estates keep setting records, including Q1's record 412 million-dollar transactions, while the broad middle of the market has clearly softened.
| Indicator | Q2 2026 | What it tells us |
|---|---|---|
| URA Private Price Index | +0.5% q-o-q (after +0.9% Q1) | Still rising, but growth moderating; +2.9% y-o-y |
| HDB Resale Price Index | -0.3% q-o-q (after -0.1% Q1) | First back-to-back decline in ~7 years; supply-led |
| Landed price index | +2.6% q-o-q | The Q1 pause is over; scarcity reasserting itself |
| CCR / RCR / OCR | +2.0% / -1.4% / -0.2% | Leadership rotating from suburbs to core |
| New private homes sold | 2,116 units (+5.1% q-o-q) | Demand steady despite fewer launches |
| 3M compounded SORA | ~1.1% | Cheapest financing since 2022 |
What the rules look like right now
No new cooling measures have landed in 2026, but the framework set in 2023 and 2025 fully shapes today's market. Three rules matter most.
First, ABSD is unchanged since April 2023. Singapore Citizens pay nothing on their first residential property, 20% on the second and 30% on the third. Permanent Residents pay 5%, 30% and 35% respectively, and foreigners pay 60% across the board. These rates have now held for over three years, and Budget 2026 left them untouched.
Second, the Seller's Stamp Duty got teeth in July 2025. For any residential property bought on or after 4 July 2025, SSD now applies for four years instead of three, at 16%, 12%, 8% and 4% depending on the year you sell. Flipping is effectively off the table. Every purchase made today needs a genuine four-year-plus horizon.
Third, the 15-month wait-out is still in force. Private property owners under 55 must still wait 15 months after selling before buying an HDB resale flat. The Government has signalled the rule is under review and could be relaxed before 2027, but as of August 2026 nothing has changed. If your right-sizing plan depends on this rule moving, plan on the current rule, not the rumour.
The market is no longer being driven by speculation. It is being driven by supply maths, financing costs and household balance sheets. That favours buyers who do their homework.
The three signals we are watching most closely
1. The HDB resale plateau is now confirmed
When we published this piece in June, we said two more flat-to-negative quarters would confirm the shift from a seller's market to a balanced one. Q2 delivered the first of them: down 0.3%, with volume about 10% thinner than a year ago. This is still digestion, not a crash. HDB is launching around 19,600 BTO flats in 2026 across the February, June and October exercises, and a growing wave of MOP flats is adding resale supply at the same time. But the direction is now established: sellers of ordinary flats in non-mature estates need sharper pricing, and buyers have regained real negotiating room for the first time since 2019. If you own a strongly attributed flat, high floor, mature estate, near MRT, the million-dollar numbers say your segment remains firmly in demand. We unpack the sell-or-hold decision in our MOP HDB guide.
2. New launch scarcity meeting cheap money
The 2026 launch calendar is roughly 30% thinner than 2025's, yet demand keeps showing up: 2,116 new private homes (excluding ECs) sold in Q2 2026, up 5.1% from Q1 despite fewer projects on the shelf. Earlier in the year, take-up at well-priced projects was emphatic: Pinery Residences in Tampines moved 92.5% of units at launch at a median of $2,547 psf, and River Modern in River Valley cleared 91.4% at $3,220 psf. Thin supply plus fixed mortgage rates from about 1.4% is a recipe for firm new launch pricing into 2027. The question for buyers is not whether projects will sell, it is whether the entry price still leaves room for the next buyer. That is a project-by-project answer, which is why we run the numbers on every launch through PropertyNet.SG before recommending it.
3. The landed pause is over
In June we called the Q1 landed dip of 0.4% a breather, not a turn, and said patient buyers had a window. Q2 answered emphatically: landed prices rebounded 2.6%, the strongest segment in the market. The structural story never changed: roughly 73,000 landed homes exist, the Government releases no new landed land, and the landed index has risen about 73% since 2019. The window we flagged has largely closed, and the lesson stands for the next pause too: when a scarce asset takes a breather after a strong run, that is the entry point, not the warning sign. Our analysis of why landed prices held while condos cooled goes deeper.
What this means for you
If you are a first-time buyer: this is one of the friendlier moments in years. HDB resale prices have stopped running away from you, grants of up to $230,000 are available for resale flats, and BTO waiting times have shortened. Start with our five questions every first-time buyer should ask.
If you are an HDB upgrader: the window is unusual and worth understanding. Your flat's value has plateaued, but the OCR private prices you are likely buying into actually slipped 0.2% in Q2 while the market's growth rotated to the CCR and landed. Both sides of your ledger are soft at the same time, which happens rarely. Whether to go resale or new launch, and whether your numbers clear TDSR comfortably at today's rates, deserves a proper sit-down. Our BTO vs resale comparison and condominium advisory are the starting points.
If you are an investor: the four-year SSD and 20% ABSD on a second property mean the easy trades are gone. What remains is selective: projects with genuine scarcity, decoupling where it is legitimate and the numbers justify the costs, and commercial assets outside the residential stamp duty net. We cover the rules carefully in the decoupling playbook.
What could change the picture in 2H 2026
Every outlook needs its falsification conditions, so here are ours. A relaxation of the 15-month wait-out would be the single biggest demand event for HDB resale: it would release pent-up right-sizer demand from private owners, disproportionately into 4-room and smaller flats in mature estates. The Government has flagged a review with a possible update before 2027; if it lands, expect the resale plateau to firm up quickly in exactly the premium segments that are already strong.
The rates path matters in the other direction. Most forecasts put SORA in the 0.7% to 1.2% band for the rest of 2026, which keeps financing supportive. The risk case is not higher rates this year; it is buyers anchoring to 1.4% fixed as permanent. We stress-test every client's numbers at materially higher rates, because a 25-year mortgage will live through more than one rate cycle.
Supply is the slow variable. The 2026 new launch calendar is thin, but Government Land Sales sites sold through 2024 and 2025 will surface as launches into 2027. New launch pricing power is real today and not guaranteed in eighteen months. For sellers of resale private property, that argues against complacency; for buyers, it argues for discipline on entry price rather than fear of missing out.
And as always in Singapore, policy is the wildcard. Three years of unchanged ABSD and a freshly toughened SSD suggest the Government considers the framework calibrated. But the speed of the July 2025 SSD move, announced one day, effective the next, is a reminder: structure every plan so that it still works if the rules tighten mid-stream.
Where do you sit in this cycle?
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Book a Consultation →Frequently asked questions
Is the Singapore property market going up or down in 2026?
It is diverging. Private prices rose 0.5% in Q2 2026 (after 0.9% in Q1), led by landed and the CCR, while HDB resale fell 0.3%, its second straight decline and the first back-to-back drop in nearly seven years. Private prices are supported by thin supply and cheap financing; HDB resale is softening as heavy BTO and MOP supply absorbs demand.
What cooling measures apply in 2026?
ABSD is unchanged since April 2023 (0/20/30% for citizens, 60% for foreigners). SSD runs four years at 16/12/8/4% for purchases from 4 July 2025. TDSR is 55%, MSR 30%, LTV 75%. The 15-month wait-out remains in force, under review.
Are mortgage rates high right now?
No. 3-month SORA sits around 1.1% as of mid-2026, down from about 3% in early 2025, and fixed packages start near 1.4%. Financing is the cheapest it has been since 2022.
Is 2026 a good year to buy?
For buyers with a four-year-plus horizon and comfortable financing, conditions are constructive. The honest answer depends on your segment, entry price and exit plan, which is exactly what an advisory review establishes before you commit.
Data referenced: URA and HDB Q1 and Q2 2026 indices (Q2 figures per July 2026 flash estimates), IRAS stamp duty schedules, MAS/MND announcements, and PropertyNet.SG transaction records, current as of 18 August 2026. Policy settings can change; verify time-sensitive rules before transacting.
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Edmund founded Edmund Ee Advisory in 2005 and co-founded PropertyNet.SG, the data platform behind every recommendation the practice makes. He leads a team of 55+ specialist advisors under PropNex Realty covering HDB, condo, landed, new launch, commercial and investment property.